The National Retail Federation has released its annual holiday forecast, predicting retail sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025. This translates to total spending of $1.013 trillion for the season. By comparison, last year’s holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024, totaling $972 billion.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
Mark Mathews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, says there has been strong spending momentum going into the 2026 holiday season. “At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups,” he adds.
Retailers are hiring seasonal workers to meet consumer demand this holiday season. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimated 356,000 seasonal jobs for the holiday season. Similar to last year, retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, resulting in a measured approach to seasonal hiring.
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. NRF’s holiday forecast is based on economic modeling using various key economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales. NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.
