Retail sales saw strong growth in December, putting holiday season results in line with the National Retail Federation’s forecast for record spending. Based on the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor data, powered by Affinity Solutions, 2025 holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1% compared with the 2024 holiday season. That compares with NRF’s forecast that holiday sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2% from the same period in 2024 to just over $1 trillion.
“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 1.26% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. That compares with increases of 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year in November.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations) was up 1.6% month over month in December and up 3.58% year over year, while there was a slight decrease of 0.04% month over month and an increase of 4.66% year over year in November.
A late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday into December in 2025, so an additional busy day of holiday spending is included in December’s data. December’s numbers brought total 2025 sales as calculated by the Retail Monitor to an increase of 4.93% over 2024 and core sales to an increase of 5.08%.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
December sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by clothing stores, sporting goods stores and digital products. According to NRF, sales at clothing and accessories stores were up 2.05% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.11% year over year unadjusted. NRF adds that sporting goods, hobby, music and book store sales were also up 3.52% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 5.16% year over year unadjusted.
The data also shows that general merchandise store sales were up 2.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.42% year over year unadjusted.
