Retail spending declined on a monthly basis in February amid concern over tariffs. Despite the month-to-month decline, the National Retail Federation reports that retail spending grew year over year in February as the economy remained strong.
“Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for nondiscretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”
NRF says total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.22% seasonally adjusted month over month, but sales were up 3.38% unadjusted year over year in February. Additionally, retail sales declined 1.07% month over month but increased 5.44% year over year in January. Total sales were up 4.41% year over year for the first two months of the year and core sales were up 4.91%, compared with 3.6% growth for the full year in 2024.
The NRF Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions.
The month-to-month downturn in February came after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico at the beginning of February. NRF says the Canada-Mexico tariffs were immediately delayed by a month, then delayed again for most goods until April 2. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January, marking the second monthly decline after five months of small gains.
February sales were up in six out of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores and general merchandise stores. NRF reports that online and non-store sales were up 0.46% in February month over month seasonally adjusted and up 36.51% year over year unadjusted. Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month in February, but up 8.33% year over year. In addition, general merchandise stores were down 0.42% month over month in February, but up 6.2% year over year.
